Somalia is the most famous No-Nation this days on the news. Ethiopia is in war with the Islamic auto proclaimed Somali government. And probably they shall won. Who knows if it shall be like in Afghanistan or Irak, where the Americans (and the coalition of will) won the battle but is loosing the war. In this case there is an important difference: the Islamists claims Ethiopian and Djibouti territories for the “Great Somalia”.
In the early 70’s the USSR needed a secure port in the Indic Ocean for the Indic fleet in order to maintain the global power of that superpower. Somalia was a good option and the USSR and Somalia agreed to make a treaty. Somalia gave free and secure ports to the USSR and Somalia receive aid, medicines and goods. But after a time the USSR decided to make Ethiopia the base on that zone, principally after the 1974 revolution (with the help of Cuban expeditionary forces). The USSR annulled the treaty and made one with Ethiopia. Somalia was furious and in 1978 initiated a war against Ethiopia. The war closed with a tie. In Ethiopia ruled a revolutionary government and in Somalia started a dictatorship ruled by Said Barre. But the end of the “Cold War” changed everything, including the regional situation.
Djibouti is and independent nation. In the early XX century was named as “French Somalia”. Actual Somalia was divided in “Italian Somalia” in the North and “Brittish Somalia” in South. That happened until 1936-1941. In 1936 Italy annexed Ethiopia to their African empire. In 1941, with the global war initiated, the war reached those territories. Italians tried to conquest but “Italian Somalia” was freed and Ethiopia too. Ethiopia was reestablished as a monarchy under Haile Selasie and Somalia, as a bizone, unified: Italian and Brittish Somalia were one. This days Djibouti is part of the Francophonie and is an important base of French troops. Since 2004 also includes US, German and a little Japanese troops.
At the end of the “cold war” the Somali dictatorship felt down. And a democratic system reached Ethiopia after the withdrawn of the Cuban troops. Somalia was in hands of the Lords of the War. Divided. With Hunger. And here enters the “Restore Hope” United Nations operation. But after an incident in 1993 in Mogadiscio, the US troops retired making unfortunate the mission. After the UN leaving from Somalia three different territories raised: Somaliland and Puntland (curiously both in the former “Italian Somalia”) and the rest (the former Brittish Somalia). The last one was formally considered Somalia and the others were never recognized as states by the International community. In the final 90’s an international effort built a transition government in Somalia, but failed ruling the order in the nation.
In 2001 everything is told to have hanged. In Afghanistan the Taliban (ideological cousins of the Islamic courts of Somalia) were (officially) defeated by the Northern alliance and the US troops. Although the insurgency of the Taliban still remains in the South of Afghanistan.
In Somalia, in 2004, the Transition government was rebuilt. The auto proclaimed government, the Islamic Courts, aided by world wide islamists fighters, entered in Mogadiscio, making the internationally recognized government march to a city in the periphery of the capital. The capital of a dissolved nation. Without one government or a center.
Islamic courts also receives the aid of one state. In the 70’s Ethiopia had, annexed to the nation, the land of Eritrea. So was the reason why Ethiopia had the way to offer sea ports to the USSR. At the end of the 80’s and during the beginning of the 80’s Eritrea won their independence. Because Ethiopia is the Fatherland of the African Christians and Eritrea is an Islamic nation. So Ethiopia and Eritrea are enemies. And during the 90’s there have been trials of new wars. Somalia (better said: the Islamic Courts) claims now all the lands where Somali people live (their Lebensraum). This lands are part of Ethiopia and part of Djibouti.
Finally Ethiopia decided to help the Transition government in Somalia and try to unify the nation. This days are close to enter in Mogadiscio, officially the capital. Probably the reason to the incursion is the Fear of Ethiopia to the expansionist will of the Islamists. Or to be held on a crossfire between two Islamic nation (and an Islamism opposition inside).
African Union is on the way to celebrate a conference. The African home for all the nations of Africa (excluding Morocco because of their Colonialism in the RASD) will try to control the possibility of expansion of the conflict into a regional war including more nations: Eritrea, Ethiopia, “Somalia” and others. And if Djibouti “is called” to war… it shall be interesting to see Europe (trough the French bases and troops and the German troops) and United States (because of the troops in the zone) opinionating about this certain problem.
We will see on the next days the photo of the victory on the terrain of the Ethiopian troops and the Transition government entering Mogadiscio. But that will close the war? Shall that end the crisis? Probably no. Because as we see in Afghanistan or Irak a military victory is not, finally, the answer. At least not the whole answer for reconciliation and “good neighborhood policy”.
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